How to Master Project Prediction

Author

Micah Piippo
April 22, 2025

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Forecast construction finish dates with confidence using this step-by-step method

Ever get hit with “When will this project finish?” and your stomach drops?

You know the project's complicated.
You’ve got 10 things in motion.
And you can’t just pick a date out of thin air.

But what if you could confidently forecast the finish using actual data — and make your prediction stick?

That’s what this guide is about.

By the end, you’ll know how to build a data-backed forecast that reveals where your project is really heading — and how to present it so even the toughest execs believe you.

🛠️ Step 1: Pull the Actuals from Primavera P6

Open up your schedule and export the following fields:

  • Activity ID

  • Activity Name

  • Start

  • Finish

  • Actual Finish

  • Original Duration

  • Actual Duration

If you want to go deeper, add activity codes like contractor, phase, or trade to filter performance later.

📌 Quick Tip: Strip out the WBS and flatten the data. You want a clean, readable export.

🧼 Step 2: Clean the Data in Excel

Now paste everything into Excel.

Delete any rows that don’t have an Actual Finish — we’re only analyzing completed work.

Add a new column:

PAD = Actual Duration / Original Duration

Clean up the decimal places, and remove any milestones (they’ll throw errors since they have no durations).

Build a pivot chart with:

  • Rows = Actual Finish (grouped by month)

  • Values = Average PAD

  • Chart = Smooth Line Graph

This reveals how performance is trending over time — up, down, or flatlining.

You're not just looking at one data point. You’re seeing a story unfold.

📅 Step 4: Predict the Finish Date

Here’s how it works:

If your project is planned for 24 months…
You’re 8 months in…
And the PAD is 1.6…

Then:
16 months remaining × 1.6 = 25.6
Total forecast duration = 33.6 months

That’s your projected finish based on actual performance — not hope.

🧠 Step 5: Use SCQA to Present the Forecast

Don’t just dump a chart into a deck and call it a day.

Use the SCQA storytelling method:

  • Situation: What project are we on?

  • Complication: What changed? Why are we worried?

  • Question: What’s the likely finish if this trend continues?

  • Answer: Based on actuals, here’s our predicted outcome.

Walk your audience through it slowly — especially if it’s bad news. People need time to digest.

I’ve used this method with field supers and execs at the same time. It works.

🛡️ Step 6: Expect Pushback and Get Curious

This is the part no one talks about.

Once you drop the chart, expect comments like:

  • “That includes design delays — construction will be better.”

  • “But those activities aren’t on the critical path.”

  • “Procurement threw it off. We’re back on track now.”

These are normal.

Instead of defending the data, offer to dig deeper:

  • Filter just construction

  • Filter by trade

  • Show PAD by contractor

  • Show SPI or start/finish performance

You’re not here to win an argument. You’re here to tell the truth — with curiosity and humility.

🧲 Step 7: Use the Data to Drive Action

Once people see the forecast, they’ll ask: “Now what?”

Here’s what I usually recommend:

  1. Increase tracking rigor
    Add start/finish tracking alongside PAD.

  2. Flush the critical path
    If durations are bad, logic probably is too.

  3. Add quantities to durations
    Support durations with real math — pipe length, cable footage, crew rates.

  4. Support field execution
    Use Last Planner or Pull Planning to lock in realistic plans.

  5. Gamify with scorecards
    Track metrics across teams, make it public, and encourage competition.

🏁 Final Thought

If you aren’t measuring PAD, you’re guessing.
But PAD is just one lens.

This entire method works with any reliable metric:

  • Start Variance

  • SPI or CPI

  • Crew productivity

  • Weekly percent plan complete

  • % activities on critical path

If you can measure it, you can visualize it.
If you can visualize it, you can communicate it.
If you can communicate it, you can drive change.

The power isn’t in the number.
It’s in your ability to make it mean something.

Because when you do, you go from just updating schedules to leading project recovery.

📥 Grab the Tools

Want the actual Excel forecast template and SCQA presentation deck?

👉 You can download both right here.

Use them, remix them, and make them your own.

Thank you for reading.

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