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Scheduler Roles 📅, Building a Dream Team🎯& PAD Formula Explained

Scheduler Roles 📅, Building a Dream Team🎯& PAD Formula Explained

Micah Piippo
December 09, 2024

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Here's a simple formula to predict project delays before they happen.

As planners and schedulers, we’re always asking:

How can I accurately forecast my project’s completion?

Here’s one proven approach: Performance Against Duration (PAD).

What is PAD?

It’s a ratio that compares actual vs. planned activity durations:

👉 PAD = Actual Duration ÷ Original Duration

Example:

Original Duration = 10 days

Actual Duration = 15 days

PAD = 15 ÷ 10 = 1.5

But how do you turn this into actionable insight?

2 ways to use PAD to forecast your project:

1️⃣ Broad stroke approach

Apply the average PAD to the remaining project duration.

Example: With 6 months left and an average PAD of 1.5, the project is forecasted to take 9 months (3 months late 🫨 ).

This is a fast, high-level estimate.

2️⃣ Detailed activity-specific approach

Adjust PAD at the activity level for precision.

Export your Primavera P6 schedule to Excel.

Apply PAD to remaining durations, then re-import to see critical path impacts.

This method gives you accuracy and insight.

Want to go further?

💡 Slice PAD by contractor or trade to identify trends.

💡 Integrate PAD into Monte Carlo simulations for even greater precision.

💡 Appy this formula to other metrics like activity start or finish dates.

Keeping track of PAD throughout your project will help you determine if things are improving or getting worse.

Forecast the End Date of a Project Using Performance Against Duration (PAD)

Copy and paste this prompt into ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude.

Act as a skilled Project Scheduler and Data Analyst with expertise in project forecasting. Develop a clear and actionable guide to help a user analyze their spreadsheet data to calculate Performance Against Duration (PAD) and use it to forecast project delays.

Begin by explaining the PAD formula: PAD = Actual Duration ÷ Original Duration (e.g., if the Original Duration is 10 days and the Actual Duration is 15 days, PAD = 15 ÷ 10 = 1.5).

Provide detailed steps for calculating PAD using spreadsheet data, including methods for automating the calculation across multiple activities. Guide the user through both a broad-stroke approach (applying the average PAD across the project to estimate total completion time) and a detailed activity-specific approach (adjusting PAD for individual tasks to assess impacts on the critical path).

Incorporate advanced techniques like slicing PAD by contractor or trade, integrating PAD into Monte Carlo simulations, and applying the formula to other metrics such as start or finish dates. Ensure the guide is logically structured with numbered steps, practical examples, and clear explanations, using an informative and professional tone throughout.

Before you begin, ask me 3 questions to help improve your answer.